Projected emissions to 2050 consistent with country targets

We have long-standing experience with emission scenarios and quantification of country targets in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and long-term low emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) submitted to the UNFCCC under the Paris Agreement. We quantify emissions for 196 countries - the world&aposs most comprehensive assessment to our knowledge. Our work that draws on this data is widely published. We deliver the emissions data and related analysis to investors, national government scientific advisors, consultants for UN institutions and non-governmental bodies and provide data support services. Our team members have decades of experience constructing these quantifications using in-house emission databases and modelling tools, and providing resources such as the NDC factsheets and Paris Equity Check

Historical emissions for every country and Kyoto gas

We develop and maintain PRIMAP-hist, one of the world&aposs most widely-used and cited composite emissions databases. PRIMAP-hist combines several published datasets to create a comprehensive set of greenhouse gas emission pathways for every country and Kyoto gas covering the years from 1750 to 2022, and all UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) member states, as well as most non-UNFCCC territories. Subsector data for Energy, Industrial Processes and Agriculture is available for CO2, CH4, and N2O.

Reduced complexity climate models & MAGICC

MAGICC, is one of the world’s most used and respected reduced complexity climate models. It has been extensively used in successive IPCCC Assessment Report (AR) processes for decades, including in the IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 (Physcial Science) and Working Group 3 (Mitigation) Reports.

We build interfaces to support multilateral institutions, governments, professional services firms and other clients to assess the temperature rise implied by the emissions scenarios they are exploring, drawing on MAGICC.

MAGICC can provide probabilistic projections that truly reflect current scientific uncertainties. Combined with the appropriate regional approaches, it can provide the basis for proper risk management. Our team of Malte, Zeb and Jared is the core development team behind the latest versions of MAGICC since 2004.

Projections of global climate impacts

Our tools present a probabilistic assessment of the scenarios obtained from different global modelling groups to identify how individual projections sit within the modelled ranges. This enables a risk-based approach to assessing the physical risks to assets, operations, and supply chains - essential given the uncertainties we’re all navigating.

We incorporate projections from a wide range of scientific and industry sources - illustrating how up-to-date scenario analysis that is predominantly used among private sector stakeholders compares with the assessments produced by the international scientific modelling communities.

Regionally scaled probabilistic estimates of global climate models

Climate Resource is developing regionally scaled estimates of the global projections to assess impacts in each decade to 2050 or 2100 scale on variables such as:

• surface air temperatures.
• sea-level rise, with adjustments for regional sea level rise
• change in precipitation
• change in windspeed

These can be compared and contrasted with bottom-up estimates obtained from regional or country specific models.

Climate Resource builds tools to explore transition pathways

... for the energy system to 2050 consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and well below 2°C. Our tools synthesize the results of the global modelling community that informs IPCC assessments of possible energy transition scenarios illustrating the distribution of results. We incorporate recent industry projections and NGFS scenarios to illustrate where they sit within this broader range of scenarios from the scientific community.

CMIP6 data analysis and construction of datasets

The founders of Climate Resource led the development of a new CMIP6 data analysis tool. Supported by University of Melbourne researchers, this tool puts output from the world’s most sophisticated climate models (collectively known as CMIP6 climate models) in the hands of the public, without the need for expert big data knowledge.

At Climate Resource, we have constructed emissions data sets to enable modelling of the atmospheric chemistry and local air quality impacts of a transition to green hydrogen in the context of a decarbonising global economy. These have been developed as part of a two year project with CSIRO, Australia. They will support a more systematic representation of the possible impacts of the emerging hydrogen economy by global earth system modelling teams, for the first time to the best of our knowledge.