We develop some of the world’s most widely used models and data to quantify country emissions, evaluate the implications for global warming, track progress, and assess the impacts of the changing climate at a global and regional level.
We build platforms and provide advice to turn science into the insights needed to respond to climate change.
Under the pledges of April 2016, emissions would still be 50 Gt in 2050. Today’s NDCs and long-term targets, met in full, would bring them to 29 Gt, half of today’s level.
The pledges of April 2016 pointed to about 2.9°C of warming by 2100. Today’s NDCs and long-term targets, met in full, point to about 2.0°C.
In 2035, pledges leave emissions 16 Gt above the current lowest-overshoot pathways, and 27 Gt above the IPCC’s pathways with no or limited overshoot.
IPCC pathways that hold warming below 2°C have emissions about 30% lower than pledges in 2035, and 9 Gt lower in 2050.
On their 2030 and 2035 targets alone, countries’ emissions in 2050 would be 14 Gt higher than if they also deliver their long-term targets. Stronger NDCs would close that gap.
Their 2035 targets sit on or below a straight line from today’s emissions to their long-term target. Together they produce about 18% of global emissions.
Lines show medians and bands the range across interpretations of countries’ NDCs and long-term targets (LT-LEDS and net-zero pledges), as they stood on 4 April 2016 and on 10 November 2026.
Median warming above the 1850 to 1900 average under the same two sets of pledges. Bands show the range across interpretations of the pledges, at the median climate response. Dots are observed annual means.
Current lowest overshoot: median and range of the 10 ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 pathways that return warming to 1.5°C by 2100 after a peak of up to 1.7°C. IPCC AR6 C1: median and middle half of the pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot. The C1 pathways assumed cuts from 2020.
IPCC AR6 C3a: pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) with immediate action. The line shows the median, the bands the middle half of pathways and, lighter, the 5th to 95th percentiles. Pledges: median and range across interpretations of NDCs and long-term targets.
NDCs only: countries’ 2030 and 2035 targets, with no long-term target counted. NDCs and long-term targets: the same targets followed by LT-LEDS and net-zero pledges. Lines show medians and bands the range across interpretations.
On course: the 2035 NDC target is on or below a straight line from 2025 emissions to the long-term target, within 2% of 2025 emissions, under every interpretation of the targets. National totals include land use, and the EU is assessed as one bloc.
We project the temperature rise that results from emissions and energy-transition scenarios using MAGICC, one of the world’s most widely used and respected reduced-complexity climate models. MAGICC has supported climate science and policy for more than 30 years and has been used throughout assessment processes of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including the Sixth Assessment Report.
Our staff have been the core developers of MAGICC since 2004. We support multilateral institutions, advisory firms and other organisations to assess the warming implications of their emissions pathways.
We produce high-resolution regional climate impact projections, including for temperature, precipitation and sea level rise, to support physical climate risk analysis. Using the best available science, we estimate impacts at the warming levels and spatial scales most relevant to our clients and collaborators.
We derive transition pathways for energy and energy-intensive sectors at a global level and for major emitters. We provide these at the sub-sectoral level relevant to policy and investment risks. For policy makers and investors, it shows the changes in the physical economy to achieve emissions targets, and limit warming.
We produce authoritative, widely used emissions datasets for all countries, tracking historical emissions since 1750 and projecting trajectories to 2050 based on national targets. Our data underpins major international assessments, including the UNEP Emissions Gap Report, and is referenced in metrics used across the finance sector.
We synthesise results from global and country-specific modelling and help clients and collaborators access, use and understand the data, including how projections are changing and why.
We build and maintain some of the world’s most widely used climate models and datasets. We develop software interfaces and provide expert support so clients and collaborators can access, understand and apply these tools and insights in their work.
We play a leading role in parts of CMIP7, the global collaboration that brings together the world’s climate modelling centres to prepare the science underpinning upcoming assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Our team develops datasets built from satellite and ground-based observations, and creates methods and software to rapidly evaluate and benchmark Earth system models. MAGICC is also linked with major economic and energy models, enabling consistent comparison of emissions and climate outcomes across scenarios.
Climate Resource makes climate science usable for real-world decisions.
Historical emissions
Emissions projections
Sectoral decarbonisation pathways
Assessment of warming implications
Earth System Model input datasets
Earth System Model evaluation
Regional climate impacts
